UFO Disclosure Probability — 2026 Update

How Grok + Copilot’s 2025 Baseline Shifted After PURSUE

Analyst reviewing Cold War intelligence archives on unidentified aerial phenomena — connecting historical secrecy to modern transparency under PURSUE.

In May 2025, both Grok and Copilot produced independent probability estimates for UFO disclosure based on my article UFO CRACKPOTS — The Empire Strikes Back. Those estimates became the informal “baseline” for the disclosure movement.

A year later, the landscape has changed.

PURSUE exists.
Hundreds of files are public.
NDAs have been voided.
Congress is still pushing.
Public attention is rising.
And yet — the core barrier remains.

This update compares the 2025 baseline to the 2026 reality, and recalculates the probabilities for partial and full disclosure through ~2030–2035.

1. The 2025 Baseline (Grok + Copilot)

Both systems treated “disclosure” as:

• Partial disclosure: Government acknowledges unexplained phenomena but does not confirm extraterrestrial origin.

• Full disclosure: Government publicly confirms extraterrestrial life or recovered non-human technology.

Grok (May 2025)

• Partial: ~30–40%

• Full: ~10–15%

Copilot (May 2025)

• Partial: ~35–45%

• Full: ~10–20%

These numbers reflected:

Drivers pushing disclosure:

• credible advocates (Rubio, Ratcliffe, Elizondo, Grusch, Vallée, Nolan, Loeb)

• congressional momentum

• media amplification

• whistleblower claims

Barriers holding it back:

• zero public physical evidence

• institutional secrecy

• scientific skepticism

• political/cultural risk

That was the world of 2025.

2. What Actually Happened Since May 2025

The world of 2026 is different.

A. PURSUE became real (May 2026)

A formal rolling declassification system — Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters — began releasing tranches every few weeks.

By early August 2026:

• Five tranches released

• Hundreds of files

• Videos, images, audio, PDFs

• Multi‑agency participation:

  • Pentagon / DoW

  • CIA

  • FBI

  • NASA

  • Department of Energy

  • Department of State

  • Executive Office of the President

The content includes:

• historical intelligence

• Cold War investigations

• nuclear‑site intrusions

• pilot reports (“unlike anything I had seen”)

• multi‑sensor modern cases

• triangle morphology clusters

• unresolved aerial objects across multiple theaters

But the official language remains consistent:

“Unresolved. Insufficient data. No determination of origin.”

No confirmation of extraterrestrial life or technology.

B. NDAs were voided (July 31, 2026)

A major structural change:

ODNI memo (Aaron Lukas) voided prior NDAs/oaths for personnel reporting UAP information to AARO or PURSUE.

This removes a decades‑long barrier for whistleblowers.

This single policy shift increases the probability of full disclosure more than any other factor since 2020.

C. Congress stayed active

2026 saw:

• UAP Caucus events

• June 2026 Disclosure Forum

• Capitol steps appearances with Grusch

• legislative pushes for a UAP Disclosure Act

• whistleblower immunity discussions

• records requests

• AARO’s FY2025 report (hundreds of new cases logged)

AARO again stated:

“No evidence of extraterrestrial origin in resolved cases.”

But the unresolved set remains large.

D. Public/media interest increased

• TIME coverage

• Avi Loeb’s advisory role

• documentaries

• polling showing bipartisan demand for transparency

The “cat is further out of the bag.”

But still no smoking‑gun artifact.

3. Updated Probability Estimate (August 2026 → 2030–2035)

Based on:

• PURSUE’s existence

• five tranches

• hundreds of files

• NDA voiding

• congressional pressure

• public attention

• AARO’s unresolved cases

• absence of physical evidence

• absence of ET confirmation

Partial Disclosure

65–80% probability (2030–2035)
Partial disclosure is no longer speculative — it is already happening:

• PURSUE releases

• official “unresolved” language

• multi‑agency participation

• normalized reporting

• NDA waivers

• congressional pressure

• public demand

The government is now openly saying:

“Unresolved UAP exist and we study them.”

This bureaucratic normalization will continue.

Full Disclosure

15–25% probability (2030–2035)
Slightly higher than the 2025 baseline.

Why?

• NDA waivers

• more whistleblowers

• more leaks

• more data

• more public pressure

• more congressional pressure

But the core barrier remains:

“Undeniable, publicly examinable evidence of non-human origin.”

Without that, full disclosure cannot occur.

4. Sensitivity Analysis

Bull Case (partial 80%+, full 30%+)

Would require:

• verified leak

• physical material under scientific oversight

• legislation with subpoena power

• multi‑sensor data ruling out prosaic/adversary tech

Bear Case (partial ~50%, full ~10%)

Would occur if:

• releases plateau

• videos remain ambiguous

• interest fades

• new administration reclassifies

• no new whistleblowers emerge

5. The Honest Update

My 2025 article correctly identified real momentum.

That momentum produced:

• PURSUE

• hundreds of files

• multi‑agency releases

• NDA voiding

• congressional pressure

• public normalization

Partial disclosure is now a rolling process.
Full disclosure remains the extraordinary claim requiring extraordinary evidence.

The needle has moved —
but the threshold has not been crossed.

J.L. Powell